In this study we reconstruct quantitatively the Middle to Upper Miocene climate evolution in the southern Forecarpathian Basin (Central Paratethys area, Northwest Bulgaria) by applying the coexistence approach to 101 well-dated palynofloras isolated from three cores. The climatic evolution is compared with changes in vegetation and palaeogeography. The Middle Miocene was a period of a subtropical/warm–temperate humid climate with mean annual temperature (MAT) between 16 and 18°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) between 1100 and 1300 mm. Thereby, during the entire Middle Miocene a trend of slightly decreasing temperatures is observed and only small climate fluctuations occur which are presumably related to palaeogeographic reorganisations. The vegetation shows a corresponding trend with a decrease in abundance of palaeotropic and thermophilous elements. The Upper Miocene is characterised by more diverse climatic conditions, probably depending on palaeogeographic and global climatic transformations. The beginning of this period is marked by a slight cooling and a significant drying of the climate, with MAT 13.3–17°C and MAP 652–759 mm. After that, fluctuations of all palaeoclimate parameters occur displaying cycles of humid/dryer and warmer/cooler conditions, which are again well reflected in the vegetation. Our study provides a first quantitative model of the Middle–Upper Miocene palaeoclimate evolution in Southeastern Europe and is characterised by a relatively high precision and resolution with respect to the climate data and stratigraphy.
